Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, Chengdu will record a daily maximum temperature at Shuangliu International Airport Station, measured in the Weather Underground Daily Observations table rather than the summary high-low section. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% YES on Polygon, suggesting either illiquidity or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will contain the recorded high. Traders settling this contract will need USDC to purchase conditional tokens representing their chosen temperature band, with resolution tied directly to Weather Underground's primary observational data rather than derived summaries.

Chengdu's August climate presents a consistent pattern: the city experiences peak summer heat during mid-month, with daily highs typically ranging between 32–36°C. Historical August data from Shuangliu shows occasional spikes above 37°C during heat waves, though such extremes occur roughly once every three to four years. The 0% probability across all ranges suggests the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful price discovery, making this contract sensitive to early trader positioning once volume arrives.

China's meteorological forecasts for August 2026 remain unavailable at present, but traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration's seasonal outlooks released in July, which typically indicate whether above-normal temperatures are expected. Real-time weather patterns in late July will provide the most actionable signal: sustained high-pressure systems over central China in the week preceding 17 August historically correlate with elevated daily maxima. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 17 August, allowing only morning trades before Weather Underground's daily observation closes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.