Pronóstico: Highest temperature in London on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will determine which range this contract settles into. The market currently prices all outcomes at 0% YES, reflecting that no single temperature band has accumulated meaningful trader conviction ahead of the settlement window closing at midday UTC on that date. Polymarket's conditional token architecture on Polygon means positions here are denominated in USDC and will resolve to either 1 or 0 depending on which temperature bracket captures the day's peak reading from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at the airport station.

August temperatures in London have historically clustered between 20–27°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 30°C except during heatwaves. The Met Office's 30-year average high for mid-August sits around 23°C. The 2022 heatwave pushed readings above 40°C across parts of southern England, though London City Airport recorded 35.4°C that August—a useful benchmark for assessing tail-risk pricing in this market. Current 0% pricing suggests traders are either awaiting seasonal forecasts closer to the date or treating all temperature bands as equiprobable until meteorological data firms publish their August 2026 outlooks.

The UK Met Office typically releases extended forecasts 10–14 days ahead, with confidence intervals widening substantially beyond that horizon. Any Atlantic weather pattern shifts or blocking high-pressure systems developing over Europe in early August 2026 would be the primary catalysts reshaping trader positioning. Until then, the contract's flat pricing reflects genuine uncertainty about summer conditions two years forward.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.