Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Madrid on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid's highest temperature on 25 July 2026 will be measured at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, the city's primary weather station. The Polymarket contract currently prices a YES outcome at 4%, reflecting trader conviction that the day's peak will fall into a specific temperature range—likely the uppermost bracket being priced. Settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical data for that single calendar date, with the settlement window closing at midday UTC.

Historical July temperatures in Madrid provide the baseline for calibrating this probability. The city's July average high sits around 32–33°C, with extreme heat days occasionally reaching 38–40°C. Madrid's record July temperature of 42.2°C was set in 1994; more recently, the summer of 2022 saw multiple days exceed 40°C across Spain. The 4% implied probability suggests traders are pricing in a relatively rare outcome—either an unusually cool July day or, conversely, an exceptionally hot one depending on which temperature bracket the YES option covers. Without visibility into the exact range boundaries, the low probability indicates the market expects a typical-to-warm July day rather than a historical outlier.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European weather forecasting models as July 2026 approaches, particularly ECMWF and GFS outputs issued in late June. Heatwave alerts from Spain's meteorological agency (AEMET) would signal shifting probabilities. Broader atmospheric patterns—the North Atlantic Oscillation and Mediterranean sea surface temperatures—influence summer heat in central Spain. Any El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through early 2026 could modulate seasonal temperature expectations, though such signals remain distant from current forecasting horizons.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.