Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's summer heat peaks in August, with Incheon International Airport—the official measurement station for this market—typically recording daily highs between 28 and 32 degrees Celsius during mid-month. The 0% probability currently priced on Polymarket reflects the market's assessment that the highest temperature reading on 20 August 2026 will fall below whatever threshold defines the lowest resolution bracket. This pricing emerges from conditional token mechanics on Polygon, where traders holding YES tokens profit only if the settlement data from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table confirms a temperature in their specific range; the USDC collateral backing these positions remains locked until the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date.

Historical August temperatures at Incheon show considerable variability year-to-year. The station recorded 33.5°C on 20 August 2023 and 32.1°C on the same date in 2022, though cooler years have produced readings closer to 27–28°C depending on monsoon activity and pressure systems. The current 0% valuation suggests traders expect a notably cooler outcome than these recent precedents, or that the market's lowest bracket sits above typical August highs—a positioning that warrants scrutiny against climatological norms.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during late summer can dramatically suppress temperatures across the Korean peninsula, whilst high-pressure systems anchored over the region drive sustained heat. Real-time atmospheric data from late July onwards will signal which pattern dominates the settlement date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.