Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s highest temperature on 5 July 2026 is the real-world event this contract settles, measured at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius. On Polymarket today, the YES side for any specific outcome sits at 0% crowd-implied probability, yet the market has already generated $74.9K in volume since launching on 3 July, with 32°C as the frontrunner at 31% and 33°C next at 26%[1]. This distribution reflects traders anchoring to July’s typical peak range of 25–33°C, where historical maxima reach 38°C but rarely exceed it in early July[3]. The July 4 market, which resolved to 33°C at 100%, reinforces that 32–33°C is the credible band for this period, making the current 0% YES price on a binary interpretation likely a mispricing of the underlying range-based resolution[2].

Traders should monitor ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models, which for 4 July already pointed to a 33–36°C peak, suggesting similar conditions may persist into 5 July[2]. Key catalysts include updates from Wunderground—the official resolution source—as well as any sudden shifts in local weather bulletins or thunderstorm activity, which July in Beijing frequently brings alongside high heat and humidity[7]. Since settlement depends solely on the highest temperature recorded for all times on 5 July at ZBAA, real-time hourly data from Wunderground’s daily history page will be the decisive dependency, and any divergence between forecast models and observed readings could trigger rapid price movement as the 12:00 UTC settlement window approaches[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.