Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Houston on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s **daytime high at William P. Hobby Airport** is the event Polymarket is pricing here, and the contract is already showing **0% YES** on-chain in USDC on Polygon. That makes this a pure temperature-range bet on the *highest* reading recorded by the station before the settlement window closes, with conditional tokens ultimately paying out according to whichever bracket contains the final Wunderground figure.

The market is easier to read against Houston’s summer heat profile than against a single forecast run. A recent Houston past-weather record shows a **95°F** high with humid overnight conditions, underlining how common mid-90s readings are in the city’s warm season.[1] For a July event at Hobby, the practical question is usually not whether it gets hot, but whether cloud cover, rain-cooled air, or a marine push keeps the peak below the upper-90s or nudges it into triple digits. That distinction matters because the contract resolves to a range, not a single-point guess, so traders are effectively positioning around the odds of an ordinary hot day versus a notably hotter one.

For catalysts, watch the hourly forecast trend into late morning and early afternoon, especially any shift in cloud cover, thunderstorm coverage, or wind direction that can change the realised maximum. In a live Polymarket position, those updates flow through the same mechanics as any other market: USDC collateral, Polygon settlement, and conditional token pricing that can move quickly if the forecast or radar changes materially. If the National Weather Service or local forecasters flag convection or a heat-boosting dry slot, that can alter how far the station climbs before the daily high is locked in; absent that, the market is mostly a read on whether Houston can outpace its already elevated seasonal baseline.[1]

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.