🎁 New traders: 100% Deposit Match up to $500 · 0% fees · instant USDC payoutsClaim it →
HomeGuideCryptoMarketsBlogSee live odds →

Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Munich on July 18?

Five-platform snapshot of "Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Munich on July 18?" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

27°C 61% 26°C 28% 28°C 13% 29°C or higher 1% Volume: $107K Liquidity: $283K Closes: 18 Jul 2026
Open live market →
Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Munich on July 18?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 61% 39% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 61% 39% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
27°C61%
26°C28%
28°C13%
29°C or higher1%
19°C or below0%
20°C0%
21°C0%
22°C0%
23°C0%
24°C0%
25°C0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 61% YES probability for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Munich on July 18?. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market …

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

Trade Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Munich on July 18? on Polymarket Qué Es

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Related live markets

More live prediction markets from our tracker — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es.

See all markets →