Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's weather on 19 August 2026 will determine which temperature bracket captures the day's peak reading at LaGuardia Airport, measured via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The current market pricing reflects zero probability across all temperature ranges, a technical artefact common when settlement windows remain distant and historical data cannot yet anchor expectations. Polymarket's conditional token structure on Polygon means traders holding USDC can establish positions across multiple temperature bands simultaneously, though the 0% crowd probability suggests minimal liquidity or early-stage market formation.

August temperatures at LaGuardia historically cluster between 78–86°F for daily highs, with the airport's 30-year average high for mid-August sitting near 82°F. The record high for any August day at the station stands at 96°F, set in 1933, though readings above 90°F occur roughly once per decade during the month. This historical distribution provides the baseline against which traders should calibrate their position sizing and bracket selection.

The National Weather Service's seasonal forecasting and any Atlantic hurricane activity patterns emerging in summer 2026 will shape expectations as the settlement date approaches. Heat dome formation or tropical system proximity could drive temperatures substantially above the historical mean, whilst cooler-than-normal ocean temperatures in the Atlantic might suppress peak readings. Traders should monitor NOAA's long-range outlooks beginning in June 2026 and track actual weather patterns in the weeks immediately preceding 19 August, when short-term forecasts become actionable for position adjustments.

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 19? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.