Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 25 June 2026, with current Polymarket pricing showing a 0% implied probability for any YES outcome. This near-zero valuation reflects the market’s assessment that the temperature will not reach the threshold required to trigger a payout, despite Seoul’s typical early-summer heat.

Historically, late June in Seoul sees rising temperatures and humidity, with daily highs often reaching 25–30°C and real-feel temperatures exceeding 35°C due to moisture levels over 80%[1][5]. The average warmest day in June is 28.06°C, with peaks of 26.7°C, but extreme heat events are uncommon before the monsoon season fully begins[9]. Incheon, slightly cooler than central Seoul, typically records marginally lower highs, further reducing the likelihood of a threshold breach.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts and Wunderground’s hourly updates for Incheon, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or rain could suppress temperatures[3][4]. Recent reports from KBS indicate heavy afternoon showers and midday highs of only 27°C on 25 June 2026, suggesting conditions may remain below the threshold[7]. Any official announcements regarding heatwaves or monsoon onset will be critical catalysts, though current data points to a stable, non-extreme day.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.