Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 28 June 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, which currently prices the "YES" range at 0% probability. This implies the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded, likely because June in Seoul typically sees highs between 19°C and 28°C, with late June becoming noticeably hotter and more humid as the monsoon season approaches[1][2]. Historical data shows daily highs in Seoul for June 2026 ranging from 85°F to 91°F (approximately 29°C to 33°C), with an average high of 88°F[3]. While extreme heat is rare in early June, the record for the hottest June day in Seoul was 35.6°C on 25 June 1958, and a recent record-breaking day in South Korea reached 35.6°C, suggesting that temperatures can spike unexpectedly if weather patterns shift[8].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's short-range forecasts and any announcements regarding the onset of the monsoon season, which typically runs from late June to mid-July[1][4]. The timing of the rainy season is a critical catalyst, as increased humidity and rain can suppress peak temperatures, while a delay in the monsoon could lead to hotter, drier conditions. Recent news highlights that South Korea has already experienced its hottest June day on record, indicating that temperature anomalies are possible this year[8]. On Polymarket, this contract resolves using USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens allow users to bet on specific temperature ranges; the settlement window ends at 12:00:00 UTC on 28 June 2026, with data sourced from Wunderground for the Incheon station[1]. Understanding these dependencies is essential for assessing whether the current 0% probability is a market inefficiency or a rational reflection of typical June weather patterns.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on June 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.