Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 20 August 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and measured against specific celsius thresholds. The Polymarket contract currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% YES, reflecting either minimal liquidity or a technical settlement issue rather than genuine market consensus. Traders are effectively pricing this as an unresolved or illiquid position, with conditional tokens on Polygon sitting dormant until the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date. The resolution mechanism is notably strict: Weather Underground's Daily Observations table takes precedence over the Day High & Low summary, a distinction that matters when automated systems report slightly different peak readings.

August temperatures in Tokyo historically cluster between 32–36°C, with 2023 recording a peak of 35.1°C and 2022 reaching 35.5°C. The Japan Meteorological Agency's data shows that extreme heat events above 37°C occur roughly once per decade in the Kanto region, making very high temperature ranges statistically less probable. Current seasonal forecasts for summer 2026 remain unavailable, though long-range models typically indicate whether El Niño or La Niña conditions will influence East Asian heat patterns.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency advisories issued in late July 2026, which typically forecast August conditions two to three weeks in advance. Any tropical cyclone activity approaching the region in mid-August could suppress peak temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems stalling over the Pacific would elevate them. The specific choice of Haneda Airport as the measurement station matters: coastal location and urban heat island effects create measurably different readings than inland Tokyo stations.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.