Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 5 July 2026 is the real-world event this market resolves to, with the settlement source being Wunderground’s daily high data for that station. Today, Polymarket prices the contract at 0% for a YES outcome on any temperature below 27°C, reflecting a collective belief that the heat will exceed that threshold. The frontrunner is 27°C at 54%, followed by 26°C at 44%, with total volume exceeding £24,000 across conditional tokens on the Polygon network, settled in USDC.

Historical July highs at Haneda typically range between 26°C and 29°C, but 2026 has already seen a record-breaking start: Tokyo reached 36.8°C on 1 July, the highest ever recorded for that date, according to Japan Daily [6]. Last year’s market for 4 July settled at 28°C with 100% certainty [2], while the 2 July market showed 83% probability for 24°C [3]. These precedents suggest that a 0% probability for sub-27°C outcomes is not an error but a rational adjustment to the unprecedented early-summer heatwave.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily forecasts and any updates on the rainy season’s retreat, which usually ends by mid-July and triggers sharper temperature rises [9]. A recent report notes that Japan’s summer of 2026 has arrived with immediate record highs, indicating sustained thermal pressure [6]. On-chain, liquidity shifts in the 27°C and 28°C pools will signal whether the market expects further escalation, with conditional token trades updating in real time as new data points emerge from Wunderground.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.