Pronóstico: US announces blockade on Iran by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The United States has already publicly announced a naval blockade on Iran, effective from 13 April 2026, following the collapse of the Islamabad Talks and the escalation of the 2026 Iran war. This real-world event means the market’s “Yes” condition has technically been met, yet the crowd-implied probability sits at 32% because traders are weighing whether CENTCOM’s 18 June announcement of removal constitutes a formal reversal before the settlement deadline of 31 December 2026.

Historically, such blockades have been temporary tactical measures; the 2026 blockade was lifted after Trump and Iran reached an agreement on 14 June to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the US military clarifying the blockade remained only until the agreement was signed on 19 June. This precedent suggests that an announcement of a blockade does not guarantee its permanence, and traders must distinguish between the initial imposition and any subsequent official removal, as the market resolves on the announcement event itself, not the blockade’s duration.

Key catalysts include CENTCOM’s public statements on enforcement status, scheduled US–Iran diplomatic updates, and any new presidential directives regarding the Gulf of Oman. Traders should monitor AP News reports on CENTCOM’s latest operational confirmations, as Adm. Brad Cooper’s statements have previously defined the blockade’s scope and termination. With USDC and conditional tokens on Polygon underpinning Polymarket’s pricing, the contract’s current 32% valuation reflects uncertainty over whether the 18 June removal announcement will be deemed sufficient to override the initial April imposition before the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.