Pronóstico: 1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the *More markets* contract on 1. FC Köln v Real Sociedad at **97% YES**, so the market is treating a further settlement-eligible market for the club friendly as overwhelmingly likely to appear and resolve within the window ending 7 August 2026 at 16:00 UTC.[4][10] On Polymarket, that price sits on-chain in USDC on Polygon, with outcome exposure represented by conditional tokens, so traders are really assessing the exchange’s read-through on event confirmation and market construction rather than the football match in isolation.[4]

A 97% print is consistent with how the surrounding match has been priced elsewhere: pre-match odds and model-based forecasts for the friendly have generally put Real Sociedad only as a modest favourite, with the game itself seen as fairly balanced and goal-rich rather than one-sided.[1][5][6] That context matters because “More markets” on Polymarket usually reflects whether additional sub-markets can be listed and settled cleanly from the scheduled fixture, not who wins. For comparison, related books and models have been showing standard 1X2 prices in the low-to-mid 30s for Köln, around the mid-30s for Sociedad, and draws near 30%, which implies plenty of uncertainty in the football outcome even while the contract itself trades near certainty.[1][3][15]

The main catalysts a trader should watch are official team-news updates, any change to the kick-off schedule, and whether the fixture proceeds as a conventional 90-minute friendly with identifiable settlement data, because those are the practical dependencies for a “more markets” listing to resolve as expected.[2][11][13] Market participants on Polymarket will also watch for any late suspension, venue or timing adjustment, since a small on-chain probability here is usually less about form and more about whether the contract’s event feed and settlement conditions remain intact through the deadline.[4][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: 1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.