Pronóstico: Pisa SC vs. Empoli FC

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Pisa SC's chances of victory against Empoli FC in the Coppa Italia fixture on 17 August 2026 at 60% YES, with conditional tokens trading on Polygon and settlement in USDC. The match represents an early-stage cup competition encounter between two Serie B-adjacent clubs with contrasting recent trajectories. Current pricing reflects moderate confidence in a Pisa win, though the 40% implied probability for Empoli or a draw suggests meaningful uncertainty persists.

Pisa and Empoli have met regularly in Tuscan derbies and cup competitions over the past decade, with results split fairly evenly when accounting for home advantage. Empoli's historical edge in Serie A experience—the club spent five seasons in the top flight between 2014 and 2021—typically translates to stronger squad depth and tactical sophistication in cup play. However, Pisa's recent promotion trajectory and investment in playing personnel have narrowed this gap considerably. Comparable Coppa Italia matches between clubs of similar standing in 2024 and 2025 settled near 55–65% for the favoured side, suggesting current pricing sits within historical norms for such fixtures.

Traders should monitor team news releases and pre-season friendly results in the weeks preceding the match, as August fixtures often feature rotated squads and injury management protocols. Confirmation of final squad lists typically arrives 48 hours before kickoff. Empoli's summer transfer activity and any late departures to Serie A clubs could materially shift conditional token valuations, particularly if key attacking players move on. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC on match day, allowing minimal time for post-match price discovery.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.