Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| CF Pachuca O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Puebla O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Puebla O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CF Pachuca 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Puebla 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Puebla 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 76% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 66% |
| CF Pachuca O/U 1.5 | 62% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 58% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| CF Pachuca 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CF Pachuca 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Club Puebla 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Club Puebla 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 4.5 | 40% |
| Club Puebla O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| CF Pachuca O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Club Puebla (-1.5) | 16% |
| O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| CF Pachuca (-1.5) | 5% |
| Club Puebla (-2.5) | 3% |
| CF Pachuca (-2.5) | 1% |
| CF Pachuca 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
Market context
CF Pachuca will face Club Puebla in a Liga MX fixture on 17 August at 11:00 PM ET, with settlement occurring shortly after the final whistle on 18 August. Polymarket currently prices the "More Markets" contract at 5% YES, reflecting minimal conviction that additional betting markets will be offered for this particular matchup on the platform. The conditional token structure on Polygon means traders are wagering USDC against the proposition that Polymarket's liquidity providers will expand the market suite beyond the standard match outcome offerings.
Historical precedent suggests Polymarket's market expansion decisions correlate with fixture prominence and anticipated trading volume. Liga MX matches typically receive narrower market coverage than European top-flight fixtures, with additional markets (correct score, first goalscorer, both teams to score) appearing selectively based on user demand signals. Pachuca and Puebla occupy mid-table positions in the current standings, neither commanding the audience pull of Clásico Jalisciense or El Tráfico matchups that reliably attract expanded market offerings.
Traders monitoring this contract should track Polymarket's announcement channels and the platform's market creation activity in the 48 hours preceding kickoff. Seasonal factors matter: mid-August typically sees lighter market expansion as the Liga MX season enters its early phase. Any surge in trading volume on the base match markets or notable injury announcements affecting either squad could prompt platform operators to broaden offerings, though the current 5% pricing reflects the baseline expectation that this fixture remains a single-market event.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Pronóstico: CF Pachuca vs. Club Puebla - More Markets on Polymarket Qué Es
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