Pronóstico: Aberdeen FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

Aberdeen and Heart of Midlothian meet in the Scottish Premiership, and Polymarket currently prices the contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is not assigning any value to the more-markets outcome being settled in the affirmative. On Polygon, the position is still a standard conditional token claim settled in USDC, so the question for traders is not the abstract football result but whether the listed condition inside the contract is satisfied by the match and related market rules.

Recent history does not give this pairing a decisive one-way read. Across the head-to-head samples in the results, Aberdeen and Hearts are closely matched overall, with FootyStats showing 17 Aberdeen wins, 15 Hearts wins and 10 draws in 42 meetings, while other databases show similarly balanced records over slightly different match counts[2][10]. The shorter-run pattern is also mixed: the last five meetings are split with Aberdeen winning twice, Hearts once and two draws, and the most recent league meeting finished Aberdeen 1-0 Hearts in November 2025[5][7]. That sort of record usually supports a market that can move quickly on lineup news rather than one that should sit pinned near zero by history alone[6][10].

The main catalysts to watch are matchday confirmation and any late dependencies in the contract rules, because more-markets settlements often hinge on the exact wording of the listed event and whether the underlying fixture proceeds as scheduled. Live scoreboards from ESPN and SofaScore show the fixture on 1 August 2026 and indicate no pre-match dispute in the public match listings, but traders still need to check for postponement, abandonment or rule-specific exclusions before expiry[1][14]. If either club issues late team news, a referee change, or schedule updates from the league, those are the practical on-chain triggers that can matter more than the pre-match headline form[1][14].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.