Pronóstico: Falkirk FC vs. St Mirren FC

Platform comparison

Market context

Falkirk FC v St Mirren FC is trading at **0% YES** on Polymarket, so the contract is priced as if a positive settlement outcome is effectively off the board unless that quote moves before the window closes. On Polymarket, users are not buying the match itself but a conditional token settled in USDC on Polygon, so the live price reflects market confidence in the event resolving as the market states rather than a simple view of who is better on paper.

The historical read is mixed enough to explain why a zero bid can appear when liquidity is thin: the sides have a long head-to-head record with Falkirk holding a narrow edge in some datasets, while other feeds show St Mirren with more wins overall; recent meetings also went both ways, including a Falkirk win in January 2026 and St Mirren’s 2-1 win in September 2025[1][2][8][18]. Comparable results suggest this is not a fixture that settles cleanly from reputation alone, and recent form has been uneven on both sides, with Falkirk and St Mirren each posting a mix of wins and losses in summer and spring fixtures[4][6].

For traders, the main catalysts are still the basics: confirmed team sheets, late injury or suspension news, and any schedule or competition changes that affect whether this Premiership fixture goes ahead as listed. Recent match reports and stat feeds show both clubs have been active in summer cup and league fixtures, so market repricing will usually come from official announcements rather than from historical matchup data alone[4][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Falkirk FC vs. St Mirren FC across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.