Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Contrexeville: Anna Blinkova vs Aurora Zantedeschi Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Contrexeville: Anna Blinkova vs Aurora Zantedeschi Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Contrexeville: Anna Blinkova vs Aurora Zantedeschi Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Contrexeville: Anna Blinkova vs Aurora Zantedeschi Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Contrexeville: Anna Blinkova vs Aurora Zantedeschi Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Contrexeville: Anna Blinkova vs Aurora Zantedeschi Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Contrexeville: Anna Blinkova vs Aurora Zantedeschi Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Contrexeville: Anna Blinkova vs Aurora Zantedeschi Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Contrexeville: Anna Blinkova vs Aurora Zantedeschi | 0% |
| Contrexeville: Anna Blinkova vs Aurora Zantedeschi Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Contrexeville: Anna Blinkova vs Aurora Zantedeschi Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Contrexeville: Anna Blinkova vs Aurora Zantedeschi Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Contrexeville: Anna Blinkova vs Aurora Zantedeschi Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Contrexeville: Anna Blinkova vs Aurora Zantedeschi Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Contrexeville: Anna Blinkova vs Aurora Zantedeschi Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of pronóstico: contrexeville: anna blinkova vs aurora zantedeschi. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Anna Blinkova and Aurora Zantedeschi in the Contrexeville, originally scheduled for July 10, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will res…
Methodology
We track Pronóstico: Contrexeville: Anna Blinkova vs Aurora Zantedeschi across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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