Pronóstico: Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees

Platform comparison

Market context

The Seattle Mariners travel to face the New York Yankees on 13 August at 1:35 PM ET in a regular-season matchup. Polymarket currently prices a Mariners victory at 42%, implying roughly 58% probability for a Yankees win. This reflects the Yankees' stronger 2026 record and home-field advantage at Yankee Stadium, though the settlement window extends to 20 August to accommodate any postponements.

Historical matchups between these franchises show the Yankees have dominated recent seasons, winning approximately 55–60% of their head-to-head contests over the past five years. The Mariners, however, possess a capable roster and have shown capacity to compete in divisional play. Current standings matter considerably: a Yankees team fighting for playoff positioning will likely field their strongest lineup, whilst the Mariners' motivation depends on their own playoff prospects at that point in August. Win-loss records as of early August will be the primary determinant of how traders should weight the 42% probability.

Key variables include starting pitcher assignments, which typically emerge 48–72 hours before game time and can shift market pricing substantially. Recent injuries to either team's roster—particularly among position players or relief pitchers—warrant monitoring through MLB injury reports. Weather conditions at Yankee Stadium, including temperature and wind direction affecting fly-ball distances, may influence run-scoring expectations. Any roster moves or trades completed before the game could alter perceived team strength, particularly if either club acquires bullpen reinforcements ahead of the stretch run.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.