Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
82% | 18% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
82% | 18% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Martin Landaluce Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 82% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Martin Landaluce Match O/U 21.5 | 62% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Martin Landaluce | 59% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Martin Landaluce Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 56% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Martin Landaluce Set 1 Winner | 55% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Martin Landaluce Set 2 Winner | 54% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Martin Landaluce Match O/U 22.5 | 54% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Martin Landaluce Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Martin Landaluce Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Martin Landaluce Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Martin Landaluce Match O/U 23.5 | 48% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Martin Landaluce Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Martin Landaluce Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 34% |
| Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Martin Landaluce Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 33% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 82% YES probability for Pronóstico: Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Martin Landaluce. This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Agustin Tirante and Martin Landaluce in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 17, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade Pronóstico: Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante … on Polymarket Qué Es
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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