Pronóstico: Trump declassifies new UFO files by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Trump administration has already begun declassifying files on Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena, with the Department of War releasing three tranches of previously unseen records since May 2026 under the PURSUE system[1][2]. Despite this active transparency campaign, the Polymarket contract for “Trump declassifies new UFO files by 2026-06-30” sits at 0% YES, implying the market believes no *further* declassification beyond what has already occurred will happen before the settlement date[2].

Historically, UAP disclosures have followed rolling, incremental releases rather than single, definitive announcements. The Pentagon’s third tranche, released on 12 June 2026, included 72 documents and videos from agencies like the CIA, FBI, and NASA, confirming a pattern of staggered transparency[3]. Given that the first and second tranches were released in May and early June, the current 0% probability likely reflects trader confidence that the June 12 release was the final tranche before the 30 June deadline, with no new files expected in the final 18 days[1][2].

Traders should monitor the Department of War’s official PURSUE portal and any White House press briefings for announcements of a fourth tranche, as the system was designed for rolling releases[2]. A recent CBS News report noted the third batch included 53 documents and 10 images from multiple agencies, reinforcing the expectation that further releases depend on interagency coordination and clearance timelines[3]. With the settlement window closing in under three weeks, the absence of any scheduled fourth release on the official WAR.GOV/UFO page suggests the market’s 0% pricing is grounded in the lack of imminent catalysts[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Trump declassifies new UFO files by 2026? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.