Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing this Atlanta airport high-temperature contract at 0% for **YES**, which means the crowd sees no meaningful chance that the day’s highest reading at KATL lands in the specified range. The market settles in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the relevant question is not whether Atlanta feels hot in general, but where the final Weather Underground airport maximum ends up once the 1 August archive is complete. The contract resolves from the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport station data, with revisions accepted only until the first datapoint for the following day appears.

For context, Atlanta’s August highs are usually in the upper 80s, and the city’s August 1 record high in long-run climate records is 99°F, which makes the tail risk of a much hotter outcome real even if it is uncommon.[1] That historical shape is why market pricing can stay sensitive to a narrow band around the mid-80s rather than cluster around extreme heat. Comparable recent summer climate summaries for Atlanta have also shown occasional 95-100°F readings elsewhere in the month, reminding traders that the city can still spike well above seasonal averages when the synoptic set-up aligns.[5][11]

What matters into settlement is the same short-horizon mix traders watch in weather markets: afternoon cloud cover, thunderstorm timing, and whether southerly flow keeps moisture high enough to cap heating before the airport’s daily maximum prints. Polymarket’s own event text points to recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble consensus clustering around the mid-80s, with late-day showers as the main way the high gets trimmed.[2] For a hands-on user, the practical dependency is the timing of the first 2 August datapoint in Weather Underground’s history table, because that closes the measurement window and fixes the final range outcome.[18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.