Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Chengdu airport temperature contract at **0% YES** today, which means the market is effectively assuming the highest reading at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 2 August 2026 will not land in the YES range. That view matters because settlement is tied to the Wunderground daily history page for the airport station, and the final value will be the day’s recorded maximum in Celsius, not a citywide average or forecast headline. The position is held on-chain through USDC on Polygon, with outcome exposure represented by conditional tokens rather than a direct bet on weather itself.

The historical backdrop argues for caution in treating 0% as a firm forecast. Chengdu’s August climate is typically hot and humid, with long-run averages around the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, and several weather guides note that daytime highs can push above 35°C on hotter days, with occasional extreme spikes nearer 38°C.[2][3][5][13][18] That makes a zero price more consistent with a narrow temperature band being implied than with an expectation of cool weather. For a trader, the key comparison is not “Will Chengdu be hot?” but whether the airport’s *single-day maximum* can clear the contract’s threshold before the market resolves.

The main catalysts are the same ones that move any late-summer Chengdu weather tape: morning cloud cover, afternoon convection, and whether rain suppresses the day’s peak before the airport closes out its local maximum. Chengdu’s August pattern is characterised by frequent rainfall and high humidity, so a wet start can cap the upside even when the broader month is seasonably hot.[3][4][6][12] Because settlement uses the airport station’s recorded high on the day, traders should watch the live Wunderground history page and any short-range local forecasts rather than relying on broader regional summaries.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.