Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou on 10 July 2026 will see its peak daytime temperature recorded at the Baiyun International Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that highest reading. Today, Polymarket prices the YES contract for a 36°C+ outcome at 0%, implying the crowd believes such heat is virtually impossible on this specific date, despite the city’s July climatology typically peaking between 34°C and 37°C[9]. This stark divergence from historical norms suggests traders are either misreading the conditional token mechanics or reacting to a specific, unspoken dependency in the on-chain settlement logic involving USDC and Polygon[9].

Historically, Guangzhou’s July daily highs average around 33°C (91°F), rarely dropping below 30°C (85°F) or exceeding 36°C (96°F)[1][2]. The highest average high for the month occurs on 25 July, not 10 July, which may explain the crowd’s 0% probability for the 36°C threshold on this earlier date[1]. Yet, recent data notes this summer has been record-breaking, with July 2026 average temperatures reaching 23.3°C, the highest since 1961, driven by intense heat waves across southern China[4][6]. If this extreme trend persists, the 0% pricing could be a mispricing of the underlying volatility rather than a factual certainty.

Traders must monitor the daily Wunderground feed for the Baiyun Airport Station, as the settlement relies exclusively on this source’s highest temperature for all times on 10 July[7]. Any sudden announcements from the Guangdong Meteorological Bureau regarding heatwave extensions or typhoon-induced cooling could shift the probability dramatically, given the region’s sensitivity to monsoon patterns[3]. While no specific forecast for 10 July has been released yet, the ongoing record heat suggests the 36°C barrier is not as implausible as the current market implies, making the 0% price a potential arbitrage opportunity for those watching the real-time on-chain updates[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.