Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Today, Polymarket prices the contract for a peak of exactly 32°C at 0% YES, implying the market expects a significantly higher or lower reading. This conditional token, settled in USDC on the Polygon network, reflects on-chain sentiment that 32°C is an unlikely outcome for this specific date in Guangzhou’s summer calendar.

Historical data frames this probability starkly: July is Guangzhou’s hottest month, averaging 28.3°C, with daily highs frequently reaching 34°C or more. Recent records show China experienced its hottest July since 1961, with average temperatures hitting 23.2°C nationwide, while Guangzhou specifically saw 23.3°C and a record number of summer days. Greenpeace defines days above 33°C as “extreme hot,” and such days are rising across East Asia, often doubling since the 1960s. A 32°C peak would be unusually low for early July in this region.

Traders should monitor official heatwave announcements from the China Meteorological Administration and local weather schedules for Guangzhou, as these directly influence temperature outcomes. Recent reports from Xinhua News Agency confirm Guangzhou has seen its longest summer since 1961, suggesting sustained high temperatures. Dependencies include real-time Wunderground data updates for the Baiyun station, which will determine the final resolution. Any sudden shift in monsoon patterns or cloud cover could alter the expected peak, making live weather feeds critical for positioning before the 2026-07-06 settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.