Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently has this contract priced at **0% YES**, so the market is assigning no value to the event resolving in the higher temperature bands even though the eventual outcome will be determined by the LaGuardia Airport Station high recorded on Wunderground, settled in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens. For a trader, that means even a small shift in late forecast expectations or observed heat can matter more than the headline price suggests, because the payout is binary against the selected temperature range.

The main framing point is that New York can still produce sharp summer highs, but readings at LaGuardia are often a little different from city-centre stations, so the relevant comparison is airport history rather than Manhattan shorthand. Recent heat in the city has shown how quickly temperatures can jump into the 90s or even reach 100°F in broader New York reporting, with The New York Times and Bloomberg both covering a 100°F episode in early July 2026[4][8][9]. That sort of backdrop matters because traders often anchor to the most recent extreme, even when late-summer daily highs usually revert closer to seasonal norms.

The catalysts to watch are the standard short-horizon weather inputs: updated National Weather Service guidance, any shift in marine air, cloud cover, or thunderstorms, and the final Wunderground daily history print after the settlement window closes. Longer-range NYC August outlooks from commercial forecasters point to typical highs in the low 80s rather than sustained extremes, which helps explain why the market can stay compressed unless a fresh heat signal appears[1][11]. On Polymarket, that translates into watching whether traders move from broad summer-heat assumptions to a narrower band as forecast confidence improves before the 2 August cut-off[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.