Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is already pricing this Paris airport temperature contract at **25°C**, with that outcome shown at **100%** and every lower bucket at **0%**, so the market is effectively treating the day’s high as locked in on-chain in USDC on Polygon through the relevant conditional tokens. Because resolution depends on the highest reading at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in Wunderground’s daily history page, traders are not betting on Paris city centre headlines in the abstract but on the specific station’s recorded maximum for the full settlement window.

For context, July in Paris typically produces highs around **26°C**, but the distribution can widen materially in hot spells, with published seasonal guides putting typical July daily highs in the high 20s and occasional extremes much higher. That makes a **25°C** bucket plausible in an ordinary summer, while still leaving room for a warmer print if a late-afternoon peak is logged at the airport station. The 0% pricing suggests the crowd sees very limited residual uncertainty, even though the market only resolves once the official Wunderground record is final.

The main trader focus is on whether any late-day temperature update could still alter the final station maximum before the settlement cutoff, since airport observations can differ from broader Paris forecasts. There is also a practical mechanics angle: once the Wunderground history entry is fixed, the conditional token outcome should settle against that value, so the key dependency is the source page rather than live weather commentary or city forecasts. Recent forecast pages for Paris have continued to show midsummer warmth broadly in line with seasonal norms, but the contract resolves only on the measured high at Paris-Le Bourget, not on forecast headlines.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on July 23? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.