Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 6 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance that the temperature will fall into the specific range being offered. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a USDC-denominated conditional token on the Polygon network, where the zero probability reflects the crowd’s conviction that the actual peak heat will exceed the threshold in question. Historical July climatology for Seoul and the Incheon area shows daily highs typically reaching 28–30°C, often feeling like 34°C due to humidity above 80%, while the rainy season (Jangma) concentrates heavy downpours in central inland cities like Seoul during early July [2][3]. Past data confirms that even with monsoon activity, peak daytime temperatures rarely dip below 25°C, making a 0% YES probability for a lower range consistent with Seoul’s early-July thermal profile [2][5].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for cloud cover and precipitation probability, as a sudden shift to overcast skies with 30% rain chance could suppress peak temperatures, though recent trends suggest heat will persist [6]. The primary catalyst is the timing of the monsoon’s peak intensity; if heavy rain arrives earlier than expected, it may temporarily lower highs, but the prevailing pattern of short, intense July showers usually follows brief heat spikes [2]. Additionally, watch for any official announcements regarding the Sinchon Water Gun Festival in late July, which could influence local humidity and temperature perception, though its direct impact on 6 July remains minimal [2]. The resolution depends entirely on Wunderground’s recorded high for Incheon, so any data gaps or sensor anomalies there would directly affect settlement, making real-time weather spark reports a critical dependency [7][10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.