Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s August heat means the market is effectively asking whether Pudong Airport’s daily high on 2 August lands in an ordinary warm range or pushes into a sharper hot spell. Polymarket today prices the contract at **0% YES**, so the market is treating a qualifying high in the resolved band as an extremely unlikely outcome; on Polymarket, that view is expressed in USDC-backed conditional tokens on Polygon, with the final payout depending on the Wunderground reading for Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station.

The historical frame is straightforward: Shanghai is in its hottest season in August, with average highs around the low 30s Celsius and occasional spikes much higher, but the distribution is still centred well below extreme heat records. Sources put typical August highs near 32–35°C, while the city’s all-time extreme has reached 41°C, showing that very hot outcomes are possible but not routine.[2][5][6][8] For a one-day airport reading, the key question is whether cloud cover, rain, or maritime influence keeps the station below the highest band, versus a brief surge that lifts the day’s maximum into a hotter bucket.

Traders should watch the morning-to-afternoon forecast evolution, because the settlement source is the *highest* temperature recorded for the day, not a daily average.[17] Shanghai is in peak summer and also typhoon season, so shifts in rainfall timing, humidity, and storm tracks can materially cap or amplify the daytime maximum.[10] With the market settling off the Pudong station’s Wunderground history page, the relevant catalyst is not a later citywide headline but the live airport temperature profile as the day unfolds.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.