Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract pinned at **0% YES** today, even though the underlying event is simply the day’s peak temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, settled on the Wunderground station record rather than citywide averages. In market terms, that means buyers are currently assigning no material chance that the airport’s highest reading on 4 August 2026 lands in the contract’s YES range, so any move will depend on whether intraday conditions push the station’s maximum into a higher bracket before the settlement cut-off in UTC.

The historical frame is straightforward: Shanghai in August is typically hot, humid and often close to the low-30s °C, with long-run guides pointing to average highs around 31–32°C and frequent rain, while current August forecasts still cluster in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius.[1][5][8][13][18] Comparable day-level forecasts for 4 August 2026 also sit around 33–34°C, with some sources flagging patchy rain and others showing dry, very warm conditions, which matters because even a modest airport maximum can shift the final temperature band if cloud cover or precipitation arrives later than expected.[2][3][12][15]

For a Polymarket user, the live catalysts are the morning-to-afternoon weather evolution over eastern China, any sudden rainbands or typhoon-related shifts, and the specific timing of the airport station’s daily high versus the market’s 12:00 UTC settlement window. The contract is resolved from Wunderground’s Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station history page, so traders watch the station rather than broader Shanghai headlines; in practice, that means the key inputs are updated local forecasts, radar trends, and whether the airport actually prints a new high before the window closes. Because the market is tokenised on Polygon and settles through conditional tokens in USDC terms, the only number that ultimately matters is the station’s recorded maximum in the relevant Celsius range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.