Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data for July at this station shows daily highs typically increasing from 84°F to 88°F, rarely dipping below 75°F or exceeding 95°F, with average highs peaking at 88°F [1]. Summer averages confirm highs rarely fall below 69°F but can reach 95°F, while July 2026 forecasts indicate daytime temperatures often exceeding 35°C (95°F) and potentially hitting 40°C (104°F) [6][7]. Given these consistent patterns, the current 0% YES probability on Polymarket appears detached from the climatic reality that temperatures in this range are statistically probable for mid-July in Shanghai.

On-chain, this contract trades on Polygon using USDC, where conditional tokens resolve based on Wunderground’s official daily maximum for the Pudong station. Traders should monitor the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau’s weekly heatwave advisories and the East Asian monsoon schedule, as sudden shifts in humidity or cloud cover can alter peak temperatures. A recent report from Travel China Guide notes that July 2026 is expected to be hot, rainy, and humid, with temperatures hovering above 30°C and frequently breaching 35°C, reinforcing the likelihood of high readings [7]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 6 July 2026, meaning any pre-noon temperature spike will directly determine the outcome, making real-time weather feeds and official bureau updates critical catalysts for position adjustments.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.