Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport on 10 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data for Shenzhen in July shows average highs of 32°C, with typical daily peaks ranging between 30°C and 35°C, while the monthly average reaches 33°C on 10 July specifically [2]. The current Polymarket contract prices the "26°C or below" outcome at 0% implied probability, whereas the leading outcome is "33°C" at 41%, followed by "34°C" at 23% [1]. This pricing aligns with climatology, as Shenzhen’s July average high exceeds 31°C, making lower brackets statistically below-normal outcomes in a ten-way field [3].

Traders should monitor the subtropical high pressure systems and potential typhoon activity, which drive the 17 rainy days and 340 mm of average precipitation in July, often suppressing peak temperatures [2]. Recent records indicate China experienced its hottest month on record in July, with the highest average temperature since 1961, suggesting a possible upward bias in temperature forecasts for this period [8]. On-chain mechanics involve USDC settlement on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, where liquidity flows into the 33°C and 34°C brackets as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 10 July 2026. The resolution source is Wunderground’s official daily high for the Bao'an station, requiring real-time weather forecast checks before exposure [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.