Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, the Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport Station will record its highest temperature for the day, a real-world event that currently trades at 0% YES for the highest temperature range on Polymarket. This near-zero pricing suggests the market believes the temperature will fall outside the offered range, likely well above 28°C, given Shenzhen’s July climate.

Historical data frames this probability sharply: July is Shenzhen’s hottest month, with an average high of 89°F (32°C) and official records consistently exceeding 30°C. Climate averages show 6 July typically reaches 30°C with 70% humidity, while recent years in southern China have seen record-breaking highs, with 578 observatories logging new peaks in 2023[7]. The crowd-implied 0% aligns with this pattern, as temperatures below 28°C are exceptionally rare in mid-July.

Traders should monitor the Wunderground daily feed for the Bao’an station, the official resolution source, and watch for any sudden weather announcements from Guangdong’s meteorological bureau. Recent news highlights extreme heat trends in southern China, where super-high temperatures have become a recurring summer feature[7]. On-chain mechanics remain straightforward: USDC settles conditional tokens on Polygon, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 6 July 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.