Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 10 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Polymarket currently prices the YES contract for this specific temperature range at 0%, implying the crowd sees no chance of the event occurring within the defined bounds. On-chain, this conditional token trades on Polygon using USDC, where liquidity providers and traders adjust positions based on the evolving weather forecast rather than abstract speculation.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability against typical July highs in Haneda, which average 87°F (32°C) with daily peaks ranging from 79°F to 89°F (26°C to 32°C)[1][2]. Recent records show Japan hitting 41.2°C in Tamba city, yet Haneda’s coastal location usually moderates extremes, keeping temperatures below the threshold implied by the current market range[6]. The 0% price likely reflects that the specific range on offer is far below the expected 32°C maximum, making the outcome statistically improbable given the 2026 forecast.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily bulletins and Wunderground’s hourly updates for 10 July, as sudden shifts in humidity or wind could alter the peak temperature[2][5]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but the 88% humidity and falling pressure noted in recent forecasts suggest unstable conditions that could push temperatures higher than averages[5]. The settlement depends entirely on the first data point published on Wunderground for that date, so real-time tracking of the hourly feed is essential for any position adjustment before the 12:00 UTC deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.