Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is pricing an outcome above the relevant Tokyo Haneda Airport temperature band as effectively impossible on current information. Because settlement is tied to the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 27 July 2026, the on-chain position is really a bet on the day’s peak reading in USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional tokens rather than on Tokyo weather in general.

That 0% price looks extreme only if you ignore the usual July distribution. Tokyo’s late-July heat can still reach the low 30s Celsius, and typical July averages sit in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius, with humidity often making conditions feel hotter than the thermometer suggests[2][3]. Historical framing matters here: a contract like this usually trades near zero only when the market believes the expected high is safely inside the lower bands, but summer spikes, stronger sunshine, and short-lived hot-air intrusions can still push the day’s maximum towards the upper ranges seen in Tokyo in July[1][2].

For traders, the key catalysts are the intraday forecast revisions that affect the eventual Haneda reading, especially any shift in heat advisories, cloud cover, or sea-breeze patterns before the noon UTC settlement cutoff. Since the market settles to Wunderground’s daily high for RJTT, the practical focus is less on the citywide forecast and more on whether the airport’s observed maximum prints in a different range once the day has fully developed and the data are locked in[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.