Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is whether Tokyo Haneda Airport will record a highest temperature on 6 July 2026 that falls into a specific range, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance for the "YES" outcome. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token on the Polygon network, settled in USDC, where the zero probability reflects the crowd’s belief that the temperature will not hit the threshold in question. The on-chain mechanics mean that liquidity is locked until the first data point for 6 July is published on Wunderground, the designated resolution source.

Historical patterns for mid-to-late July in Tokyo show daily highs routinely hitting 36°C to 40°C, with humidity exceeding 95%, turning the city into a concrete jungle where heat lingers even after sunset. A Reddit travel thread notes that peak temperatures typically occur between 11 AM and 6 PM, while cooler windows exist from 7 AM to 10 AM and 5 PM to 9 PM. This context suggests that a 0% probability for a specific range may be mispriced if the threshold is set below the typical July high, as Haneda’s July 2026 forecast already projects highs between 26°C and 33°C (76°F–91°F).

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s real-time updates for Haneda on 6 July, as the market resolves only after the first data point is published. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather indicate daily highs for Haneda in July 2026 ranging from 26°C to 33°C, with overnight lows between 20°C and 26°C. No major weather announcements are expected, but traders must watch for any sudden shifts in humidity or cloud cover, which could suppress peak temperatures. The Met Office currently reports Haneda’s maximum feels-like temperature at 27°C, with gusts up to 17mph, providing a baseline for expected conditions.

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Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.