Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Toronto on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 5 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport will determine the outcome of this prediction market contract. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES outcome suggests the market believes the temperature will fall outside the specified range, likely due to expectations of cooler conditions or a misalignment with the resolution threshold.

Historically, July is Toronto’s hottest month, with average highs near 27°C (80°F) at Pearson, rarely dipping below 21°C (70°F) or exceeding 32°C (89°F)[1][6]. In July 2025, the airport’s mean temperature surpassed 24.1°C for the seventh time in recorded history, indicating a trend of warmer summers[9]. A notable heatwave in 2023 saw temperatures reach 35.8°C, breaking previous records[7]. These cases frame the current 0% probability as potentially overly cautious, given the region’s consistent summer warmth.

Traders should monitor Environment Canada’s daily forecasts and any announced heat advisories for the Greater Toronto Area, as these often precede temperature spikes. The resolution depends on Wunderground’s recorded high for all times on 5 July, making real-time updates critical[2]. Recent news from The Weather Network highlights ongoing climate variability in Ontario, with July precipitation patterns becoming more erratic, which could influence temperature outcomes[4]. USDC settlement on Polygon via conditional tokens ensures transparent, on-chain resolution aligned with these external data dependencies.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.