Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the contract at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively saying there is no live expectation of an unusually high reading at Wellington Intl Airport on 31 July. Because settlement is tied to the *day’s maximum temperature* at the airport station, the relevant number is the warmest observation recorded before the close of the settlement window, not the morning low or an average. The event resolves using Wunderground’s Wellington Intl Airport Station history page, with the temperature range determined in Celsius, and the position settles through Polymarket’s usual USDC-on-Polygon conditional-token structure.

For context, Wellington’s late-July climatology is cool and changeable rather than hot. Long-run sources put typical July daytime highs around 11°C to 13°C, with night temperatures several degrees lower, while Wunderground and other forecast feeds around 31 July show a forecast high near 12°C to 13°C, reinforcing that anything materially above that would be weather-driven rather than seasonal. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for May to July 2026 also pointed to temperatures being more likely near average or below average for much of the country, including the west of the North Island, which is the kind of background that helps explain why the crowd has not priced in a high-end outcome.

The main catalysts for traders are the short-range forecasts, wind and rain advisories, and any last-minute shift in the synoptic pattern over Cook Strait. Current feeds show rain, strong-wind watch conditions, and gusty northerly flow around Wellington, all of which can cap daytime heating and keep the airport’s maximum temperature in the low teens Celsius. The key practical check is the Wunderground history page as observations come in on 31 July: if cloud breaks briefly and the air mass warms more than expected, the daily high can still move the settlement band even when the broader forecast looks subdued.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.