Pronóstico: Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices **Yes** at **7%**, so the contract on Polygon is still treating a regime fall as a low-probability tail event rather than a base case. For a trader holding USDC-backed conditional tokens, that means the market is implicitly saying the Islamic Republic is more likely to muddle through than to lose the core structures that define resolution here: the Supreme Leader’s office, clerical oversight, and IRGC-backed coercive control.

That low price fits most current external assessments of regime durability. Johns Hopkins SAIS said in February 2026 that it saw no signs of imminent collapse, no defections in the military or security sphere, and that the government had re-established control after mass protests.[1] The Institute for the Study of War has also framed instability as real but not yet decisive, pointing to continued crackdown capacity and regime preparations for economic unrest rather than evidence of systemic fracture.[7][8] Even more bullish collapse forecasts tend to acknowledge that internal regime change would likely require cascading military, economic, and elite failures over many months, not a single shock.[5]

For trading, the main catalysts are less about rhetoric and more about whether pressure starts to hit the state’s security backbone. Watch for signs of elite defections, splits inside the IRGC, or a succession crisis that weakens coercive control; without those, protests and economic decline alone have repeatedly been contained.[1][2][4] Near-term move risk also sits around any renewed external conflict, major sanctions shifts, or a formal announcement about Supreme Leader succession, since those would change the odds of the regime losing de facto authority before the 2026 settlement date.[5][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.