Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Taipei on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 6 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability for a “YES” result sitting at 0%. Polymarket prices this contract today on the Polygon network using USDC, where conditional tokens reflect a 36% chance for 36°C and 33% for 35°C, making these the frontrunners despite the abstract event’s uncertainty. The market resolves based on Wunderground’s daily high for all times on that day at the Songshan station, toggled to Celsius via the gear icon.

Historically, July in Taipei sees average highs near 30°C, with Songshan Airport rarely exceeding 36°C but occasionally reaching it during intense heatwaves, as noted in climate data showing highs averaging 29.9°C in the first ten days of July [6]. The 0% probability for a “YES” outcome likely stems from traders misreading the temperature range thresholds or underestimating the likelihood of extreme heat, given that Songshan’s annual range typically spans 56°F to 92°F (13°C to 33°C), rarely surpassing 96°F (36°C) [2].

Traders should monitor the Central Weather Administration’s daily forecasts and any typhoon or monsoon announcements, which could suppress temperatures, as well as urban heat index reports from Taipei City’s environmental bureau. A recent update from AccuWeather highlights Taipei’s monthly weather patterns, including daily highs and lows, which are critical for anticipating deviations from the 30°C average [3]. Dependencies include real-time Wunderground data updates and the settlement window ending 2026-07-06T12:00:00Z, ensuring all on-chain mechanics align with the physical event’s resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.