Pronóstico: US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this at **0% YES**, which means the contract is effectively treated as dead unless there is a fresh, public US announcement that offensive operations against Iran have been terminated, suspended or otherwise halted again before 31 August 2026. On Polymarket, that means the USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon would only pay out if the official wording clearly fits the market’s trigger, rather than a vague de-escalation or a defensive-only posture.

That 0% reading sits against a recent pattern in which Washington has already used pause language around Iran. Reuters reported on 26 July that a senior Iranian official said Iran would halt attacks while the US maintained its latest pause on air strikes, and Mike Waltz separately said on Fox News that Trump had paused US attacks to allow more diplomacy.[1] Reuters and other outlets have also described earlier stop-start pauses and ceasefires this year, including reporting that the US military halted offensive operations and later that offensive actions were suspended following a presidential announcement.[2][6][7] For a trader, the key point is that the market appears to distinguish between a temporary pause and a formal announcement ending offensive operations, so precedent cuts both ways: there is a documented language trail for halts, but also repeated re-escalation risk.

The catalysts to watch are the White House, Pentagon, CENTCOM and any direct presidential statement, especially if it uses terms such as “halt”, “cease”, “suspend”, or “terminate” in relation to offensive action. Reuters’ latest dispatch suggests diplomacy is still being used to justify the pause, which means a reversal could come through either a renewed strike order or an official clarification narrowing the scope of the current pause.[1] Any scheduled talks, maritime-security developments in the Strait of Hormuz, or changes to the ceasefire framework would matter because the market only resolves on a public and official US announcement, not on battlefield calm alone.[1][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.