Pronóstico: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

The United States and Iran have just signed a 60-day memorandum to halt hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, yet the critical issue of Iran’s nuclear programme remains unresolved[1]. On Polymarket, this specific contract for a “final deal” by August 2026 currently trades at 0% YES, reflecting a market consensus that the interim agreement is merely a ceasefire framework rather than a binding nuclear resolution[6]. Traders on the Polygon network, settling in USDC via conditional tokens, are pricing in the high probability that the 60-day negotiation window will expire without a mutually signed written instrument satisfying the market’s strict definition[2].

Historically, similar interim accords between Washington and Tehran have failed to produce final nuclear treaties, most notably the 2015 deal which lifted limited sanctions but did not secure a permanent end to enrichment activities[1]. The current 0% probability mirrors past precedents where verbal assurances of non-proliferation were offered repeatedly without formal adoption, as seen when Iran reaffirmed its commitment not to develop nuclear weapons in the 2015 agreement under President Obama[1]. The interim nature of the current MoU, which explicitly leaves nuclear matters for future talks, suggests a structural barrier to a final deal within the remaining settlement window[3].

Key catalysts for traders to monitor include the scheduled Geneva talks potentially starting this Friday and the IAEA’s upcoming inspection access to Iranian nuclear sites[1][5]. Any announcement regarding the disposition of highly enriched uranium stockpiles or the lifting of UN-mandated sanctions will be critical, as the current draft only waives oil sanctions temporarily without eliminating all restrictions[2][4]. The market will likely remain dormant unless the US and Iran commit to a specific timeline for lifting all sanctions and resolving uranium enrichment levels before the 60-day period concludes[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.