Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Houston on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this Houston heat contract at **0% YES** today, which means the market is pricing the chance that the 3 August high at William P. Hobby Airport lands in the specified band as effectively nil. The event itself is a straightforward daily temperature print, but on Polymarket the position is actually a bundle of USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon, so the only thing that matters is the final Hobby Airport maximum recorded by Wunderground for that calendar day.

That 0% read sits against a summer pattern that is usually dominated by heat rather than sharp cold outbreaks. Houston’s August climatology is firmly hot, with average highs around the upper 80s Fahrenheit, and recent local coverage has repeatedly pointed to highs in the upper 90s with only brief storm interruptions rather than a sustained cool-down.[15][14][18] Wunderground’s own hourly forecast for Houston on 3 August showed a high of 96F, while other local forecasts ranged from the mid-90s to around 100F, which suggests traders are anchoring to a hot-day outcome rather than an extreme outlier.[3][7][5]

The main things to watch are the afternoon convection window and any late-day shower or thunderstorm that could clip the airport’s maximum by a degree or two. Local forecasts noted isolated storms and a small rain chance, but also said most of the area would stay sunny and dry, which is why the contract is likely being treated as a threshold-and-timing problem rather than a broad weather-risk event.[1][7][18] Because settlement uses the airport station rather than citywide headlines, traders should focus on the final Wunderground daily history entry for KHOU, not social-media rain reports or nearby neighbourhood readings.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.