Pronóstico: Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **65% YES** on USDC locked into conditional tokens on Polygon, which puts the market in the zone where traders are treating a formal second-phase deal as plausible but far from assured. The trigger is not more fighting easing in general; it is a **publicly announced mutual agreement** between Israel and Hamas on the second stage before the 31 December 2026 settlement cut-off.

The current pricing fits a pattern seen in Gaza ceasefire markets: initial agreements can move quickly, while later stages often stall on the hardest items. Phase one has already been used as the working framework for a transition that was supposed to lead into permanent ceasefire terms, remaining hostage exchanges, Israeli withdrawal and new security arrangements, but reporting through early 2026 showed repeated violations, stalled talks and deadlock over Hamas disarmament and governance. AP reported in January that phase-two discussions had begun in Cairo, yet by mid-January Hamas was reporting no progress, underscoring how often “talks starting” has not translated into an actual bilateral phase-two accord.[6][5][9]

For traders, the key catalysts are official statements from Israel, Hamas and the US mediators, plus any Cairo or Doha negotiation schedule that ends with a named written understanding. Recent reporting says phase-two discussions have centred on demilitarisation, technocratic governance and reconstruction, with Hamas resisting disarmament and Israel linking progress to security guarantees and hostage-related terms.[1][10][12] On Polymarket, that means price will usually react less to battlefield headlines than to whether the sides publish a mutually recognised framework, because only a formal, public agreement should settle the conditional token to YES.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.